The Notting Hill Carnival weather forecast for August bank holiday 2026 brings a mixed bag: thunderstorms threatened across Friday and Saturday, a touch of drizzle on Sunday, and something closer to sunshine arriving just in time for Monday’s main parade. For the hundreds of thousands heading to Ladbroke Grove, or to Victoria Park for All Points East, knowing what the sky is likely to do matters.
Day-by-day: what the forecasters say
Friday 28 August looks unsettled from the outset. Both the Met Office and BBC Weather have rain pencilled in for most of the day, with the possibility of thunder and lightning between 6pm and 8pm. Temperatures will reach around 22C.
Saturday 29 August follows a similar pattern. Rain is expected from around midday, again peaking at 22C, and BBC Weather forecasts a thunderstorm between 7pm and 8pm in the evening. Those planning a late night out would do well to keep one eye on the radar.
Sunday 30 August offers some relief. Rain becomes less likely, though light drizzle remains possible at intervals. The mercury nudges up to around 23C, making it the warmest of the three days. Monday 31 August, bank holiday proper, looks the most settled of all: sunny intervals, a moderate breeze and a high of 22C. Not summer at its most blazing, but a decent backdrop for a street party.
This comes after what the article’s author Amy Houghton describes as a summer of five sweltering heatwaves that turned London’s parks to dust. The bank holiday, by contrast, promises something closer to the kind of cloud and drizzle the city usually frets about.
Notting Hill Carnival weather: umbrellas recommended, not panic
For Notting Hill Carnival, a little drizzle changes very little. The event always goes ahead rain or shine, and anyone who has stood on Ladbroke Grove with a steel pan shaking the air around them will know that weather rarely dims the atmosphere. Bring a waterproof jacket, tuck a compact umbrella into your bag, and carry on. Sunday’s reduced chance of rain and Monday’s sunny intervals give both main days of Carnival a reasonable outlook.
All Points East: timing is everything
The picture at All Points East is more complicated, because the festival’s two-weekend format means conditions will vary considerably depending on when you are going.
The first weekend is already done: it was headlined by Jorja Smith, Tems, Lorde and Deftones, according to Time Out. This second weekend carries the heavier weather, but also the headline acts many will have bought tickets specifically to see.
On Friday, Tyler, the Creator tops the bill. The worst of the rain and any thunder should pass before the headline set begins, though a likelihood of light rain persisting through to 11pm means festival-goers would be wise to dress accordingly from the moment they arrive. Saturday’s thunderstorm window, between 7pm and 8pm, overlaps more directly with the evening programme, and Tyler, the Creator’s Saturday set could be affected.
Sunday is where the forecast tilts more favourably. Rain is less likely, and for those there to see Twenty One Pilots close the festival, conditions look broadly manageable. Time Out notes that this is the Columbus, Ohio duo’s only UK performance of the year, which makes the Sunday headline slot more than usually worth planning around. Gates open to normal ticketholders at 1.30pm on Sunday, giving plenty of time to settle in before the skies clear.
The one consolation for everyone at All Points East regardless of the rain: after a summer of record heat and parched ground, at least the dust clouds that have plagued outdoor events are no longer a concern.
What to pack
Whatever your bank holiday plans, the forecast makes the same suggestion: layer up, carry a waterproof, and build your schedule around the drier parts of each day where you can. Friday and Saturday demand the most preparation. By the time Monday’s breeze rolls in and the Carnival sound systems reach full volume, the outlook is the most encouraging of the weekend.